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Atlantic Tropical Outlook
Latest Atlantic Tropical Report

  • 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 210003

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    703 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2345 UTC.


    The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N15W to
    08N18W to 07N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
    from 07N21W to 06N35W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
    from 0N to 10N E of 36W.



    A stationary front continues to weaken from the Straits of Florida
    SW to the southern-central Gulf of Mexico near 22N90W to the Bay
    of Campeche near 18N94W. Deep layer dry air prevails across the
    basin as indicated by CIRA LPW and GOES-16 water vapor imagery,
    which only allows for isolated showers within 75 nm either side of
    the front. Moderate northerlies are in the northern vicinity of
    the front while lighter easterlies to northeasterlies are
    elsewhere across the Gulf N of the front. Broken to overcast skies
    are in the NW Gulf associated with the remnants of a former
    surface trough. Radar data show isolated showers in that region. A
    surface trough, remnant of the front will develop later tonight.
    This trough will evolve to a center of low pressure over the NE
    basin Tuesday evening, which will support showers and tstms in the
    region as well as inland northern Florida.


    CIRA LPW and GOES-16 water vapor imagery show deep layered dry
    air across the basin, except for the northern-central Caribbean
    where diffluent flow in the NE periphery of a ridge continue to
    support scattered showers and tstms. These showers cover the
    regions of the Windward Passage, Hispaniola and southern adjacent
    waters to 16N. Isolated showers are across Puerto Rico and
    Jamaica as well as the SE Caribbean, including the southern
    Windward Islands. In the central basin, just S of Jamaica, a 1008
    mb low lacking convection is centered near 15N76W. The low will
    weaken in to a trough that will continue to move W the next two
    days. Showers across the north-central basin will shift towards
    the NE Caribbean tonight as the upper ridge moves E along
    northern S America.


    Scattered to isolated showers prevail across the island and
    adjacent waters continuing through Tuesday morning. These showers will
    shift towards the NE Caribbean tonight as the upper ridge that
    supports it moves E along northern S America.


    A cold front extends from 30N64W SW to 26N75W where it transitions
    to a dissipating stationary front that continues to the Florida
    Straits into the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of
    the front, a surface trough extends from 25N64W to northern
    Dominican Republic supporting scattered to isolated showers S of
    26N between 57W and 70W. A second cold front extends from 31N30W
    to 24N40W to 19N50W supporting scattered showers N of 24N between
    22W and 39W. Otherwise, high pressure centered near 32N49W
    dominates the remainder central Atlantic.

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    Tue, 21 Nov 2017 00:03:36 +0000