Church Of God, TX Hazardous Weather Outlook

Church Of God, Texas

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 306 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008
Expiration: 700 AM CDT SAT SEP 06 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
IN PART OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES THE AREA WEST OF A LINE FROM ALVA TO
WEATHERFORD... TO MOUNTAIN VIEW...AND ALTUS OKLAHOMA... TO QUANAH
TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 11 PM.

IMPACTS...
SUPERCELLS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL
SIZE. MINOR...AND LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFTOPS...
AUTOMOBILES...AND TENDER VEGETATION.

SEVERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.

A LOW CHANCE FOR A TORNADO.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH 11 PM.

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AROUND
MID-AFTERNOON... WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WEST TEXAS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS... ALSO EXTENDED FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS HAS INCREASED THE MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY...WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH... WILL
MAINTAIN COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR...
PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

STRONG HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARIES HAS RESULTED IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARIES IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
STORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED... WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL IN PARTICULAR... WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES WILL KEEP TORNADO POTENTIAL VERY LOW...
BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD OCCUR... ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORM
THAT TURNS MORE STRONGLY TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED... WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY BY
LATE EVENING. A LOW LEVEL JET COULD MAINTAIN STORMS OVERNIGHT...
SPREADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY SEP 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY... MAINTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT
ANY GIVEN TIME. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 UP TO THE KANSAS BORDER... WITH LOWER CHANCES TOWARD
THE RED RIVER. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME... ALTHOUGH AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
COOLER... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMOVE THE CHANCE FOR STORMS
MONDAY NIGHT... BUT MOISTURE AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY.