Lakeview Park, TX Hazardous Weather Outlook

Lakeview Park, Texas

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 446 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008
Expiration: 700 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES THE AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM SEYMOUR... TO
CACHE... TO WEATHERFORD... TO MEDFORD. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF
STILLWATER... THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA... ARDMORE... DURANT...
AND LAWTON.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
THROUGH 9 PM.

IMPACTS...
PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND TENDER VEGETATION.

WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...CAUSING MINOR WIND DAMAGE TO TREES AND
LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS UNTIL 9 PM.

DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS... LOCATED OVER WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS AT MIDDAY... WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...
AND BE SITUATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA... ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

COOLER AIR ALOFT... COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 70S TO LOW 80S... HAVE RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITIES ACROSS
THE REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... INCLUDING SOME LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS... ARE EXPECTED TO FORM JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WEST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO
HALF DOLLAR SIZE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING A SECOND CONCERN. THE
MOST ORGANIZED AND LONG LIVED STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE A SMALL
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT
HIGHER LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER CLOUD BASES IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY OCT 7.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...AS LOW PRESSURE DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW...UNTIL A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.