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Grand Lake Rgnl, Oklahoma

Lat: 36.58N, Lon: 94.86W
Wx Zone: OKZ063
Warning FLW WEATHER ALERT - (More Info. Click Here) Warning
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Warning Issue Date: 514 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017
Warning Expiration: 1015 GMT 21 2017
...Enhanced Severe Thunderstorm Threat and Locally Heavy Rainfall Saturday Evening into Saturday Night... This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. RISK...Limited. AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. ONSET...This Afternoon Southeast Oklahoma. This Evening Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. SIGNIFICANT WINDS. RISK...Limited. AREA...Northeast Oklahoma. ONSET...Late Morning. DISCUSSION... Thunderstorm chances will become possible this afternoon across Southeast Oklahoma as moisture continues to push northward ahead of an upper level disturbance moving into the Plains. Additional thunderstorm chances will be possible this evening and overnight tonight across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as the disturbance moves through the region. Severe weather potentials are not expected with this activity. Also...ahead of the upper level disturbance and the main cold front forecast to move into the region Saturday evening...gusty southerly winds in the 20 to 30 mph range will be possible across Northeast Oklahoma today. Across the rest of the region...gusts in the 15 to 20 mph range will be possible. Breezy southerly winds are expected to continue overnight in advance of the approaching cold front. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Spotter Activation Not Expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential... Heavy Rain Potential. SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential. MONDAY...No Hazards. TUESDAY...High Wind Potential. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...No Hazards. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Thunderstorms are expected to develop to the west and northwest Saturday afternoon along the cold front and move into Northeast Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening hours and spread across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas Saturday night. An enhanced severe thunderstorm risk is forecast with damaging winds...large hail and also a low tornado potential during the initial storm development. Late evening and overnight Saturday...storms are forecast to become more linear and transition to mainly a damaging wind threat as the front moves through the region. The front looks to be exiting Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early Sunday morning. In addition to the severe potentials...widespread heavy rainfall in the one and a half to three inch range with locally higher amounts in the 4 to near 5 inch range will be possible through Saturday night across the region. These amounts could lead to flash flooding and or river flooding. Behind the exiting front...breezy northerly winds look to continue Sunday with cooler and drier conditions for the first half of next week. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT... Persons attending outdoor events Saturday evening should prepare for thunderstorms with the potential for severe weather. The overall tornado threat will continue to be assessed as additional data becomes available as the event approaches. weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.