Expires:No;;477796 AXNT20 KNHC 201737 TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 136 PM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W from 03N-15N, moving west around 15 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N-10N between 49W-55W. Scattered showers are also present from 10N-14N between 45W-50W. The wave could help to enhance showers and thunderstorms over the southern Windward Islands and southeast Caribbean late this weekend into early next week.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W from 08N-18N, moving west around 10 kt. The wave corresponds with a 700 mb trough, as indicated by model analyses. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is noted south of 12N and west of 79W, extending to the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, where the wave meets the monsoon trough. Upper-level divergence over the southwestern Caribbean is also playing a significant role in enhancing the convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 14N17W to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 06N25W to 04N46W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is seen from 09N-14N between 16W-24W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring along and within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between 24W- 35W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 210 nm of the ITCZ between 35W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Texas/Louisiana border near 30N94W to 29N95W, where it becomes a stationary front, which extends to 1017 mb low near 27N96W. A trough extends southward from the low to 23N96W to 19N94W. Another surface trough is analyzed from 29N92W to 25N93W. At upper-levels, diffluence is occurring over portions of the western Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the western Gulf from 18N-24N between 94W-97W, and from 24N-29N between 92W-96W. A 1019 mb high is centered over northern Florida, leading to quiet weather east of 90W. A surface trough will persist over the SW Gulf through early next week. A cold front will reach the northern Gulf waters this evening. It is expected to become stationary as it reaches from S Florida to near 25N97W by Sun evening. Low pressure will develop over the far western Gulf late Sun night along the surface trough near 26N96W. It will lift north-northeastward through Mon night, then east-northeastward across the north-central Gulf through Wed as high pressure builds across the waters north of the front and to the west of the low. A front will extend southwestward from the low through Wed. Another cold front will approach the far NE Gulf Wed. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected over these waters through period. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely over much of the western Gulf through Wed. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the north- central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 10N from Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 75W. Convection associated with a tropical wave along 81W interacting with the monsoon trough is described above in the tropical waves section. Farther east, Total Precipitable Water imagery shows high moisture content over northeastern Venezuela and the extreme southeastern Caribbean. Weak upper-level diffluence is noted along the northern coast of Venezuela. Scattered showers are occurring along the northern coast of Venezuela extending to 13N, including Trinidad and the southern Windward Islands. The remainder of the Caribbean is experiencing relatively quiet weather. Expect enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity to persist over the southeast Caribbean, southern Windward Islands, Trinidad and northern Venezuela into the middle of next week. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and near the coast of Colombia today. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail across most of the region through Tue night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N49W to 27N60W to 26N69W, with a dissipating stationary front from that point to 26N73W. A surface trough extends from 30N48W to 25N53W. Scattered moderate convection prevails north of 25N between 46W-54W. Scattered showers are seen from 23N-25N between 51W-57W. To the south, another surface trough is located from 20N54W to 16N57W. Isolated showers are noted east of the trough between 50W-53W. Another surface trough is from 16N38W to 10N42W. Upper-level west winds are pushing the convection well east of the trough axis. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 10N-14N between 30W-36W and from 14N-17N between 30W-39W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are noted from 18N-22N between 30W-40W. An area of numerous moderate to strong convection is noted just east of Trinidad from 09N-12N between 59W-61W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in between that cluster and the tropical wave along 52W. For more details on the moisture leading to the convection in this area, see the Caribbean Sea section above. The aforementioned stationary front well east of the northwest Bahamas will dissipate by this evening west of 65W. A strong cold front will move off NE Florida this evening, reach from near 31N70W to 27N75W to near West Palm Beach Sun afternoon, from near 31N64W to 26N72W to Miami late Sun night, and from 26N65W to the NW Bahamas and the Florida Keys by Mon evening then become stationary. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind this front through late Mon before gradually subsiding Tue into Wed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen