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Atlantic Tropical Outlook
Latest Atlantic Tropical Report
Expires:No;;591684 AXNT20 KNHC 101801 TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 101 PM EST Mon Dec 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A reinforcing cold front will move across the northern waters Tue, with the two boundaries merging by Wed. Gale winds are possible N of 29N and E of 77W with the next front. Return flow will dominate for the end of the week, with another potentially strong cold front impacting the NW portion by late Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N35W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is well south of the monsoon trough from 05N-02N between 09W-19W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and along and within the ITCZ from 08N-04N between 30W-50W near the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1030 mb high pressure over western Texas continues to build across the Gulf of Mexico with cold air advecting into the basin. The latest ASCAT shows moderate to fresh N to NW winds with broken/overcast low-level stratocumulus across the Gulf. Scattered streamer showers are noted south of 23N between 82W-87. Elsewhere, no significant convection is noted at this time. The cold front has exited the area and enter the western Caribbean.

High pressure building in the wake of the front will prevail through midweek. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu, quickly reaching the eastern Gulf late Thu night, pushing SE of the Basin Fri Night. Strong winds will follow the front, possibly reaching gale force Thu night over the northwest Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Trade winds of 15-25 kt are over the eastern and central Caribbean with strongest winds near the coast of N Colombia. In the NW Caribbean, a cold front extends from western Cuba near 22N82W to to 18N87W. A surface trough is located 80 nm southeast of the front from 27N74W to 19N83W. Scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean near the SW coast of Cuba 20N78W to 16N78W. These showers are being enhanced by some upper level divergence in the area. Subsidence and relatively dry air cover the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in S central Caribbean through Fri night, pulsing to near gale off the coast of Colombia at night. A cold front from western Cuba to northern Belize will reach from near the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras by Tue night where it will stall and dissipate through Thu. Fresh to strong winds will prevail behind the front this afternoon through early Wed. Another cold front may enter the NW Caribbean by Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends over the NW Atlantic from 31N69W to NW Cuba near 23N82W to the western Caribbean. A surface trough is ahead of the front from 27N74W to 19N83W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is seen north of 28N between 55W-70W. This is associated with a 1010 mb low 35N64W. Gusty winds are occurring with this line of convection. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing convection in both of those two areas. Farther E, a cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N38W to 25N48W. It continues as a stationary front from that point to 25N49W to a dissipating front 26N52W. Scattered showers are seen N of 30N between 36W-59W. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 30N30W to 23N25W. A cold front from 31N75W to S Florida will shift E across the basin through Wed. A reinforcing cold front will move across the northern waters Tue, with the two boundaries merging by Wed. Gale winds are possible N of 29N and E of 77W with the next front. Return flow will dominate for the end of the week, with another potentially strong cold front impacting the NW portion by late Fri.

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