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Atlantic Tropical Outlook
Latest Atlantic Tropical Report

  • 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 170559

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1259 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0515 UTC.


    ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

    A strong arctic cold front has moved into the NW Gulf of Mexico.
    The front extends from near 30N86W to 26N91W to 21N97W. Cold
    arctic offshore northerly flow behind the front is bringing near
    gale-force winds with frequent gusts to gale-force over the
    northwest Gulf tonight, and gale-force northerly winds are
    expected near Tampico and Veracruz through early Wednesday. A
    Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf waters. Please
    read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
    MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters
    Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details.


    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 05N09W to
    00N20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W to 00N49W. Scattered
    moderate convection is observed within 100 nm of the ITCZ between


    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A strong arctic cold front has moved over the northwest Gulf. See
    the Special Features section for more details. A ridge dominates
    the remainder of the Gulf waters, and will shift eastward and
    weaken overnight. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds are
    noted over the southeast waters and the Straits of Florida per
    scatterometer data while mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail
    elsewhere ahead of the front.


    A stationary front remains across the western portion of the basin
    extending from 20N78W to 12N83W. An area of scattered showers and
    thunderstorms is noted in the vicinity of the front mainly west of
    80W affecting Central America and central and western Cuba. Patches
    of low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are seen
    across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea east of the front.
    Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds behind
    the front, and moderate to fresh trade winds east of the frontal
    boundary, with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the
    coast of Colombia. The front will weaken and dissipate by this
    morning. Moisture associated with the remnants of the front will
    drift westward today, keeping showers possible over Central
    America and the northwest Caribbean. Strong winds will pulse near
    the northwest Colombia coast each night through Saturday night.


    Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated
    showers will prevail for the next couple of days over the island
    due to the influence of a ridge. A surface trough passing north
    of Puerto Rico will produce little convection. Computer models
    show increasing moisture across the island toward the end of the
    work-week as a cold front approaches from the west.


    A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N65W
    to 22N77W. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are noted in
    the wake of the front. These winds will gradually diminish tonight
    as the front weakens. To the east, a weak 1018 mb low is centered
    near 27N65W with a trough extending from it to 32N61W. Scattered
    showers are noted in the vicinity of these features. Scattered
    moderate convection has developed to the north of 27N between 57W-
    62W ahead of a cold front to the north of the area. An upper-
    level low is reflected at the surface as a trough that extends
    from 31N45W to 24N45W. Scattered moderate convection prevails
    along the trough between 40W-46W. The trough will drift westward
    over the next 24 hours. Strong high pressure of 1039 mb is located
    near Azores at 41N28W dominating the remainder of the basin. A
    strong cold front will move off the southeast United States coast
    today, then weaken as it reaches from near 24N65W to the Windward
    Passage by Friday morning. Strong high pressure in the wake of
    the front will bring strong northerly winds and building seas over
    the northern of the Bahamas on Thursday.

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    Wed, 17 Jan 2018 05:59:49 +0000