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Atlantic Tropical Outlook
Latest Atlantic Tropical Report
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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called: MADEIRA.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough along the coast of Africa near 09N13W extends southwestward to 00N22W. The ITCZ continues westward from 00N22W to the coast of South America near 01S45W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01S-02N between 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from N Florida near 28N83W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W, continuing thereafter as a stationary front to NE Mexico near 25N97W. The front is associated with very little precipitation, but may spark some isolated showers along the frontal boundary through the night tonight. A surface trough is located in the Bay of Campeche and has some convective activity associated with it, within the western half of the bay. A slowing cold front extends from Tampa Bay Florida to 26N90W then becomes stationary to extreme northeast Mexico. The front will stall east to west along 26N late this evening. Remnants of the front will lift north as a warm front on Sat ahead of a second cold front reaching the Texas coast around sunrise on Sun preceded by a line of thunderstorms. This second cold front will reach from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche on Sun night, from the Florida Big bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon night, then drift southeast on Tue and finally southeast of the gulf waters late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, spans the entire area. The trough cuts across central Cuba, toward the Colombia/Panama border. Rainshowers cover the area that extends from Jamaica to the Bahamas near 28N between 70W and 87W in parts of Honduras.

Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh-to-locally strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through early Sun. Strong nocturnal trades are then expected to resume on Sun night along the north coast of the South America. Northeast swell currently across the tropical waters east of the Leewards will gradually subside through late Sat. A weakening cold front will pass southeast through the Yucatan Basin on Tue night, and wash out across the northwest Caribbean during the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The current cold front, that passes through 33N66W, to 30N76W, to 28N82W in Florida, to 27N87W in the Gulf of Mexico, will reach from Bermuda to south Florida this evening, and then stall in an east-to-west sense, along 26N on Sat night. Remnants of this front will lift northward on Sunday. Near gale-force SE wind flow will develop to the north of the Bahamas on Monday, to the east of a surface low shifting eastward across the southeast U.S.A. The surface low will move northeast along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Tue, and drag a cold front across the northwest waters during the middle of next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT