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Atlantic Tropical Outlook
Latest Atlantic Tropical Report
Expires:No;;046420 AXNT20 KNHC 162320 TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 620 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward across the Caribbean basin during the next 24-48 hours and combine with low pressure over Colombia, increasing the pressure gradient and winds across the portions of the southwestern Caribbean. Gale-force winds are expected to develop by 0600 UTC 18 Feb from 11.5N-12.5N between 73W-76W. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 07N12W and extends to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. No significant convection is related to these features at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters. Recent scatterometer and surface wind data indicated gentle to moderate southerly wind flow across the basin, mainly south of 26N. Winds are 10 kt or less north of 26N. A stationary front currently extends along the Gulf coastline. No significant convection is observed across the Gulf waters at this time. High pressure ridging and return southerly flow will prevail through Sunday afternoon. The next cold front will move into the northwest Gulf while a trough develops in the west- central Gulf by Sun evening. The front will stall from just south of the Florida Big Bend to across the northern Gulf to the Texas/Mexico border, while the troughing lingers through Mon afternoon. The front and trough will shift west on Monday night with high pressure prevailing by Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details about the forecast Gale event over the south-central Caribbean near Colombia. Scatterometer data and surface observations indicated moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over the entire basin. No significant convection is noted anywhere in the basin. Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean will increase in the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to high pressure building north of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean Sunday night through mid-week, reaching gale-force at nighttime. Fresh to strong easterly winds are expected across the Caribbean waters west of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, Sunday through Wednesday night.


The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb surface high centered near 31N38W. This pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds across the region. The next cold front will move across the waters north of 29N early Sun, pushing east of 65W by early Monday. Another cold front will move across the waters north of 27N on Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Surface ridging and return flow will prevail through mid week.

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