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Eastern Pacific Tropical Outlook
Latest Eastern Pacific Tropical Report
Expires:No;;486224 AXPZ20 KNHC 202053 TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1846 UTC Sat Oct 20 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Vicente centered near 14.6N 94.3W at 20/2100 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 13N to 15N between 93W and 95W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 16N between 91W and 96W. Vicente will continue on a general westward track, weakening to a tropical depression near 17.5N 103.5W Tue afternoon before dissipating Wed afternoon. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Storm Willa centered near 15.2N 105.8W at 20/2100 UTC moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Currently numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 75 nm of the center with scattered moderate to strong convection noted elsewhere from 11N to 20N between 103W and 110W. Willa is forecast to reach hurricane intensity later tonight near 15.5N 106.3W, and will continue to move on a northwestward track the next couple of days while intensifying. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N91W. It resumes from 14N95W to 15N102W. Then resumes from 14N110W to 09N122W. The ITCZ continues from 09N122W to 08N127W to beyond 11N140W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N E of 84W and from 07N to 10N between 87W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 97W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 116W and 122W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 12N W of 134W.

...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features paragraph for details on Tropical Cyclone Vicente and recently upgraded Tropical Storm Willa. Elsewhere, a surface ridge will meander across the offshore waters from 23N117W to 21N106W through Mon. Gentle NW to N flow is expected N of 20N W of 110W through early Tue. The pressure gradient is then forecast to tighten, supporting moderate northerly flow W of the Baja California Peninsula during the middle of next week as large southerly swell propagates N through the waters W of Baja. Gulf of California: Light, mostly northerly flow is expected through the middle of next week when large southerly swell will reach the southern approach to the gulf waters.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwesterly to westerly monsoonal flow will dominate the offshore waters through Sat night. Fresh SW winds are expected to develop S of 05N E of 90W on Sat night through Sun night with seas to 9 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features paragraph above for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Willa. Elsewhere, a surface ridge will meander from near 30N135W to 23N117W through the upcoming weekend. Latest satellite derived winds indicate moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and gentle to moderate winds S of the ITCZ. The latest altimeter data shows seas of 7 to 9 ft across the tropical waters S of 20N and W of 128W. The 7-9 ft seas will shift westward the next couple of days, moving W of the area Mon. $$ AL