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Afton, Oklahoma

Lat: 36.69N, Lon: 94.96W
Wx Zone: OKZ058
Warning FLW WEATHER ALERT - (More Info. Click Here) Warning

Issue Date: 505 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018
Expiration: 1100 GMT 23 2018
...Severe Weather Likely Late Tonight Into Saturday... This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight. TORNADO. RISK...Limited. AREA...Near and south of I-40. ONSET...After 10pm. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...Elevated. AREA...Much of Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas. ONSET...After 10pm. FLASH FLOOD. RISK...Limited. AREA...Along and south of I-40. ONSET...After 10pm. HEAVY RAIN. RISK...Elevated. AREA...Along and south of I-40. ONSET...After 10pm. DISCUSSION... Strong to severe thunderstorms were organizing over western Kansas southward through the northwestern Texas Panhandle early this evening. These storms are expected to continue to develop eastward this evening and overnight, beginning to affect portions of eastern Oklahoma between 10pm and 2am and northwestern Arkansas between 2am and 4am. The storms are expected to organize into a squall line by the time they move into eastern Oklahoma, which will support a risk of severe weather. The most likely severe weather threat will be damaging wind gusts but there is a low threat of a tornado developing along the leading edge of the line as well as large hail up to quarter size with the stronger storms. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a threat with some of this activity overnight. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential. SUNDAY and MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential. TUESDAY...No Hazards. WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... The thunderstorms that move into the area tonight are expected to persist into Saturday morning across portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. These storms will continue to pose a low threat of severe weather and locally heavy rainfall until they weaken by late morning. Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected to develop along the outflow boundary from the morning thunderstorms and near a warm front during the afternoon and evening. The location of where these boundaries settle tomorrow is uncertain but will most likely be along or south of I-40. Very high instability and strong deep layer wind shear will support storm organization, including supercell thunderstorms. Although severe weather is possible area wide, it is most likely and will be higher end along and south of the aforementioned boundaries where very large hail to tennis ball size and a tornado threat will exist. Damaging wind will also be possible, especially later in the evening and overnight. Another round of thunderstorms is expected to move into northeastern Oklahoma Sunday night with chances continuing across all of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas through Monday. These storms will pose a limted severe weather threat during the period. High pressure will strengthen over the region by mid week, resulting in decreasing rain chances and increasing heat and humidity. Heat indices mid to late week could increase to potentially dangerous levels. contains additional information.